Global bond yields declined overnight. Global bond yields declined overnight, lifting MBS this morning. Today's US economic data came in very close to expectations and had little impact.
Compared to Friday's closing, the market has opened with a 0.125 IMPROVEMENT for the Points/Credits associated with any given interest rate option.
This daily mortgage interest rate report is designed to provide Borrowers & Real Estate Profesionals with factual data regarding where rates are at any given time and what trends are propelling current mortgage pricing on any given day. Feel free to browse the library and research historical rate updates dating back over 2 years at www.JasonGordon.info whenever desired. To make things easier, I have also posted a quick report on How To Read The Charts Below.
Also, make sure to learn THE TOP 10 THINGS TO KNOW ABOUT MORTGAGE RATES (to help understand the relationship between rates & fees/credits) along with THE TRUTH BEHIND MORTGAGE QUOTES (to better understand the relationship between up-front closing costs and mortgage interest rates so you don't get duped by clever advertising campaigns). Remember, we all make better decisions in life when we have the actual facts to analyze...share this report with those whom you care about!
The following information is current as of Thursday 9-25-2014 and will help you understand today's best mortgage rates. If you are a Buyer/Borrower who is still on the fence (or if you are a Real Estate Agent attempting to educate your "on the fence" Buyer), please review these trends and secure an historically low interest rate before it is too late.
The market closed Wednesday with a WORSENING to pricing. Wednesday's WORSENINGnetted a change of 21 basis points (bps).
(Note: Upward activity on these charts is GOOD, downward activity is BAD)
The following chart summarizes todays market activity:
The following chart shows market activity over the past 10 days (hint: green is good, red is bad):
The following chart shows market activity over the past 1 month:
Daily Interest Rate Snapshot (sample of rates from one of the country's largest Lenders...individual pricing will vary based on specific Borrower qualifications): NOTE: This Lender has quoted a 1.00% Origination Fee (1 Point) to accompany this pricing. It bears noting that this chart does not necessarily represent todays best mortgage rates.
Market Commentary (Neil Trenerry)
FNMA - Month Aug
Cpn 3.0 Chg 0.2031 Bid 98.46875
Cpn 3.5 Chg 0.1563 Bid 102.12500
Cpn 4.0 Chg 0.1406 Bid 105.32813
UST 5 YR Chg 0.1172 Bid 99.78906 Yield 1.7960
UST 10 YR Chg 0.2188 Bid 98.56250 Yield 2.5400
UST 30 YR Chg 0.5000 Bid 97.56250 Yield 3.2530
Euro Bid 1.2724 Chg -0.0055
Pound Bid 1.6335 Chg -0.0002
Yen Bid 109.190 Chg 0.180
Key Economic Data:
Durable Goods for Aug
Index: Actual -18.2%, Consensus -18.0%, Last 22.6%.
Ex-Transport: Actual 0.7%, Consensus 0.7%, Last -0.7%.
Ex-Defense: Actual -19.0%, Last 24.9%.
Ex-Air: Actual 0.6%, Consensus 0.5%, Last -0.7%.
Initial Jobless Claims: Actual 293k, Consensus 300k, Last 280k.
Continued Jobless Claims: Actual 298.50k, Consensus 2.450m, Last 2.429m.
6:45: Markit Comp Flash PMI for Sep: Last 59.7.
6:45: Markit Svcs PMI Flash for Sep: Consensus 59.0, Last 59.5.
8:00: KC Fed Manufacturing for Sep Last 4.
Applications for unemployment benefits in the U.S. increased less than forecast last week as an improving economy prompted employers to retain staff. First-time jobless claims climbed 12,000 to 293,000 in the week ended Sept. 20, the Labor Department reported today in Washington. The median forecast of 46 economists surveyed by Bloomberg called for 296,000. Claims reached a 14-year low of 279,000 in mid-July. Firings are hovering near decade lows and companies are hiring in anticipation of a sustained pickup in household spending. Still missing from the equation are bigger wage gains, which would shift the economic expansion into higher gear. This is all good news, said Ray Stone, managing director at Stone & McCarthy Research Associates in Princeton, New Jersey, who forecast a rise in claims to 293,000. The labor market is doing pretty good. Estimates in the Bloomberg survey ranged from 275,000 to 320,000. Another report today showed orders for business equipment climbed more than forecast in August, indicating gains in business investment will help boost economic growth this quarter. Bookings for non-military capital goods excluding aircraft rose 0.6 percent last month after a 0.2 percent decrease in July that was smaller than previously estimated, according to figures from the Commerce Department.
My position on MBS:
Short term stays Neutral
Long term stays Short.
Long = I anticipate pricing to improve which leads to lower Rates.
Neutral = Market should stay close to open plus or minimums 25bps.
Short = I anticipate pricing to weaken which leads to higher Rates.
Every year, I spend about a month teaching at a remarkable performing arts high school. The school runs from the ninth grade through the twelfth, and it is the seniors that I teach. The entire senior class this year numbers twelve. Fifteen is the maximum because one of the year's main activities is a trip to Europe and the number of teachers and administrators who join the group is limited, for the sake of the school budget, to three.
I've come here since 2006. Though I have occasionally taught Faulkner and Hemingway, Dante and Chaucer, the course I ALWAYS teach is called the College Essay Intensive. This runs for about a month, during which time I meet with the whole class-all twelve of them-and I also have a very full schedule of one-on-one conferences with each of them.
This is sheer luxury. I am helping each student prepare the essays he and she will send in with his or her college applications, and the ability to work with them one-on-one allows me to go very deep with them and to help them write short and longer essays that often are very important to their admission into the colleges of their choice.
There is much for those of us who are older than aspiring college students to learn from this process. For one thing, most of my students aren't particularly wealthy. Most are therefore applying for as much financial aid as they can get. And most of them get enough aid to pay for a big percentage of their college expenses. This means that I get to watch-and sometimes help-young, reasonably ambitious adults climb to a very good attitude about their futures. Though it is true that very few of them will get into Stanford or Princeton, they study the available colleges with care and come up with choices that fit their ambitions and needs very well.
And, as I said, their college entrance essays can mean a great deal about where they end up attending college. Why? Because most of their college application materials are made up of lists of grades and activities and rather impersonal information. It is-and pay attention to this-these college entrance essays that, if written very well, can provide some insight into an applicant's human qualities-ideals, beliefs, and the things he or she is passionate about.
There can be no doubt. At this stage of their career, students can't suddenly produce a bunch of new, higher grades and SAT scores. Most of those aspects of their application have been just about completed. But the student can add a great deal to his or her application by writing an essay that shows what sort of a student, and what sort of a human, the applicant is.
And here's the huge thing for older folks like us to learn. You may have already noticed that the student is selling himself or herself to the school. But he or she must do that selling by communicating in a genuine, authentic way with the people who will read the essay. A self-congratulatory essay telling the reader you should accept me to your school just won't make it, any more than telling a potential client that you're the best loan officer in the state will make it. It's just not credible, not if YOU say it.
What is credible, then? The truth. Lying, having clever all-purpose answers to the questions you might be asked, or puffing up the reality of who you are and what you can be counted on for-these things just don't work. Being real, trustworthy, with readily available answers to big questionsthis works. Similarly, approaching clients in this way-which I have called "Elegant Transparency"-with all the information, with clear and meaningful summaries of costs and fees, results in great success.
We'll talk about Elegant Transparency more in the future. It-and the programs offered by Mortgage Coach Edge-could mean a great deal to your success and, indeed, your enjoyment of this work you're doing.
Trusted Industry Advisor
The above information was compiled and distributed by San Diego Residential Mortgage Specialist, Jason E Gordon in an effort to provide transparency regarding true mortgage rate activity and market guidance to consumers and professionals interested in this activity. All Market Commentary is provided via The Mortgage Coach and/or their RateWatch technology software.
Click here for daily mortgage interest rate updates and projections for San Diego's best mortgage interest rates
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