Daily Mortgage Interest Rate Updates, Trends & Projections

Mortgage Rate Update 7-31-14: Trends & Projections

On the heals of a rough day in the market, we have continued this disturbing rate trend today. Mixed economic data has caused a volatile morning. Two early economic reports were negative for Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS). The Employment Cost Index which measures the cost of labor, increased during the 2nd quarter of 2014 at the fastest pace since the 3rd quarter of 2008. Fed Officials are closesly watching wage gains as an indicator of labor market slack, so today's data may increase pressure on the Fed to raise the Fed Funds Rate. In addition, weekly Jobless Claims were close to expectations. Jobless Claims near the 300K level are consistent with an improving labor market.  MBS then recovered some losses after today's later economic report. The Chicago PMI Manufacturing index declined sharply to the lowest level since June, 2013. Readings indicate an expansion in this sector. The big Employment report wil come out tomorrow.

The market has opened roughly 0.125 WORSE for the Points/Credits associated with any given interest rate option.

This daily mortgage interest rate report is designed to provide Borrowers & Real Estate Profesionals with factual data regarding where rates are at any given time and what trends are propelling current mortgage pricing on any given day. Feel free to browse the library and research historical rate updates dating back over 2 years at www.JasonGordon.info whenever desired.  To make things easier, I have also posted a quick report on How To Read The Charts Below.

Also, make sure to learn THE TOP 10 THINGS TO KNOW ABOUT MORTGAGE RATES (to help understand the relationship between rates & fees/credits) along with THE TRUTH BEHIND MORTGAGE QUOTES (to better understand the relationship between up-front closing costs and mortgage interest rates so you don't get duped by clever advertising campaigns). Remember, we all make better decisions in life when we have the actual facts to analyze...share this report with those whom you care about!

San Diego Mortgage Rates - Jason Gordon - www.JasonGordonMortgage.com

The Mortgage Street Smarts of where mortgage interest rates are going (and why):

The following information is current as of Thursday 7-314-2014 and will help you understand today's best mortgage rates. If you are a Buyer/Borrower who is still on the fence (or if you are a Real Estate Agent attempting to educate your "on the fence" Buyer), please review these trends and secure an historically low interest rate before it is too late.

The market closed Wednesday with a SIGNIFICANT WORSENING to pricing. Wednesday's SIGNIFICANT WORSENING netted a change of 31 basis points (bps).

(Note: Upward activity on these charts is GOOD, downward activity is BAD)

Lowest Mortgage Rates in San Diego - www.GordonMortgage.com

The following chart summarizes todays market activity:

Lowest Mortgage Rates in San Diego - www.GordonMortgage.com

The following chart shows market activity over the past 10 days (hint: green is good, red is bad):

 Lowest Mortgage Rates in San Diego - www.GordonMortgage.com

The following chart shows market activity over the past 1 month:

Lowest Mortgage Rates in San Diego - www.GordonMortgage.com

Daily Interest Rate Snapshot (sample of rates from one of the country's largest Lenders...individual pricing will vary based on specific Borrower qualifications): NOTE: This Lender has quoted a 1.00% Origination Fee (1 Point) to accompany this pricing. It bears noting that this chart does not necessarily represent todays best mortgage rates.

Lowest Mortgage Rates in San Diego - www.GordonMortgage.com

Market Commentary (Neil Trenerry)

FNMA - Month Aug
Cpn 3.0 Chg -0.2031 Bid 97.82813
Cpn 3.5 Chg -0.1719 Bid 101.71875
Cpn 4.0 Chg -0.1250 Bid 105.01563
 
Treasury
UST 5 YR Chg -0.1250 Bid 99.17969 Yield 1.7970
UST 10 YR Chg -0.2813 Bid 99.20313 Yield 2.5920
UST 30 YR Chg -0.6719 Bid 100.48438 Yield 3.3480
Currency
Euro Bid 1.3382 Chg -0.0015
Pound Bid 1.6862 Chg -0.0051
Yen Bid 102.940 Chg 0.170
Light Crude
Last 99.61
 
Key Economic Data:
Challenger Layoffs for Jul: Actual 46.887k, Last 31.434k.
Unemployment
Initial Jobless Claims: Actual 032k, Consensus 301k, Last 284k, Revised 279k.
Jobless Claims 4-wk Avg: Actual 297.25k, Last 302.00k, Revised 300.75k.
Continued Jobless Claims: Actual 2.539m, Consensus 2.495m, Last 2.500m, Revised 2.508m.
Employment for Q2
Wages: Actual 0.6%, Last 0.3%.
Benefits: Actual 1.0%, Last 0.4%.
Costs: 0.7%, Last 0.3%.
6:45: Chicago PMI for Jul: Consensus 63.0, Last 62.6.
 
Advice:
Fewer Americans filed applications for unemployment insurance benefits over the past month than at any time in more than eight years, signaling employers are hanging on to workers as demand improves. The four-week average of jobless claims, considered a less
volatile measure than the weekly figure, dropped to 297,250, the lowest since April 2006, from 300,750 the prior week. Claims in the period ended July 26 climbed to 302,000, in line with the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg, from a revised 279,000 the prior week that was the lowest since 2000. While auto plant shutdowns during this time of year make it more difficult for the government to adjust the data for seasonal variations, the declining trend points to a job market that is heating up. A tightening labor market could lift wages and spur consumer spending, which accounts for about 70 percent of the economy. Layoffs are low, and business confidence has held up very well over the last couple of months given all of the geopolitical tensions, Ryan Sweet, senior economist at Moodys Analytics in West Chester, Pennsylvania, said before the report. Claims are consistent with an acceleration in GDP growth in the third quarter. The median forecast of 49 economists surveyed by Bloomberg projected claims would increase to 300,000. Estimates ranged from 280,000 to 320,000. The Labor Department revised the prior weeks reading from an initially reported 284,000.
 
My position on MBS:
Short term stays Neutral.
Long term stays Short.
 
Long = I anticipate pricing to improve which leads to lower Rates.
Neutral = Market should stay close to open plus or minimums 25bps.
Short = I anticipate pricing to weaken which leads to higher Rates.
 
Short term = 1 - 2 days out
Long term = 30+ days out

Market Commentary (Dan Rawitch)

Well..we got crushed yesterday after the Fed announcement. This morning started out worse, due to better than expected Jobless Claims. Later in the morning we were saved by a horrible Chicago PMI number. I think we will fight and hold above the trading range, but the fate of tomorrow depends on the Non-Farm payroll numbers. Sadly, Bond holders are the Morticians of the financial community and benefit when people are out of work.

If you've floated and still have a chance to lock today, I would do that. We've seen too many economic surprises to bet on weak payroll numbers tomorrow.

 

Trusted Industry Advisor

San Diego Mortgage Rates - Jason Gordon - www.JasonGordonMortgage.com

The above information was compiled and distributed by San Diego Residential Mortgage Specialist, Jason E Gordon in an effort to provide transparency regarding true mortgage rate activity and market guidance to consumers and professionals interested in this activity. All Market Commentary is provided via The Mortgage Coach and/or their RateWatch technology software.

As a Certified Mortgage Planning Specialist (CMPS) Certified Distressed Property Expert (CDPE) Certified Mortgage Coach (CMC), and Certified Military Housing Specialist (CMHS), Jason E Gordon utilizes his advanced training to examine a prospective Client's complete financial picture, while carefully listening to their overall goals. If it is mutually agreed that a new loan makes sense to pursue, Jason strives to make the entire loan process as seamless as possible. He truly believes that providing open communication and patient educational guidance to his Clients and Business Alliances has been a pivotal component to building his business, while enhancing his reputation in the Mortgage Industry as a Trusted Advisor. Visit www.GordonMortgage.com or www.CrossApproval.com or more information.

Click here for daily mortgage interest rate updates and projections for San Diego's best mortgage interest rates

For more information on topics like this, please feel free to visit www.GordonMortgage.com (an educational resource for Borrowers, Real Estate Agents, and Financial Professionals). Educational content provided by:

Jason E. Gordon

Sr. Mortgage Loan Officer

CMPS, CDPE, CMC, NMLS 259027

AmeriFirst Financial, San Diego Residential Mortgage Specialist, Jason E Gordon

Office: 619-200-8031

Email: jgordon@amerifirst.us

www.GordonMortgage.com

 

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AmeriFirst Financial Inc., 1550 E. McKellips Road, Suite 117, Mesa, AZ 85203 (NMLS #145368) Toll free phone (877) 276-1974. Copyright 2012. All rights reserved. This is not an offer to enter into an agreement. Not all customers will qualify. Information, rates, and programs are subject to change without prior notice. All products are subject to credit and property approval. Not all products are available in all states or for all loan amounts. Other restrictions and limitations may apply. AmeriFirst Financial is required to disclose the following licensing information. Please click here for licensing information. 

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0 commentsJason E. Gordon • July 31 2014 11:51AM
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