Daily Mortgage Interest Rate Updates, Trends & Projections

Mortgage Rate Update 6-13-14: Trends & Projections

Despite lower than expected PPI inflation data, Mortgage Backed Securities moved lower this morning. One reason is due to a speech last night suggesting that the Bank of England may begin to raise rates sooner than expected. Some investors are contemplating whether the Fed will provide similar guidance at its meeting on June 18, 2014.

Pricing has opened 0.125 - 0.250 WORSE to the points/credits associated with each interest rate option.

This daily mortgage interest rate report is designed to provide Borrowers & Real Estate Profesionals with factual data regarding where rates are at any given time and what trends are propelling current mortgage pricing on any given day. Feel free to browse the library and research historical rate updates dating back over 2 years at www.JasonGordon.info whenever desired.  To make things easier, I have also posted a quick report on How To Read The Charts Below.

Also, make sure to learn THE TOP 10 THINGS TO KNOW ABOUT MORTGAGE RATES (to help understand the relationship between rates & fees/credits) along with THE TRUTH BEHIND MORTGAGE QUOTES (to better understand the relationship between up-front closing costs and mortgage interest rates so you don't get duped by clever advertising campaigns). Remember, we all make better decisions in life when we have the actual facts to analyze...share this report with those whom you care about!

San Diego Mortgage Rates - Jason Gordon - www.JasonGordonMortgage.com

The Mortgage Street Smarts of where mortgage interest rates are going (and why):

The following information is current as of Friday 6-13-2014 and will help you understand today's best mortgage rates. If you are a Buyer/Borrower who is still on the fence (or if you are a Real Estate Agent attempting to educate your "on the fence" Buyer), please review these trends and secure an historically low interest rate before it is too late.

The market closed Thursday with an IMPROVEMENT to pricing. Thursday's IMPROVEMENT netted a change of 6 basis points (bps).

(Note: Upward activity on these charts is GOOD, downward activity is BAD)

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The following chart summarizes todays market activity:

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The following chart shows market activity over the past 10 days (hint: green is good, red is bad):

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The following chart shows market activity over the past 1 month:

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Daily Interest Rate Snapshot (sample of rates from one of the country's largest Lenders...individual pricing will vary based on specific Borrower qualifications): NOTE: This Lender has quoted a 1.00% Origination Fee (1 Point) to accompany this pricing. It bears noting that this chart does not necessarily represent todays best mortgage rates.

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Market Commentary (Neil Trenerry)

FNMA
Cpn 3.0 Chg -0.2813 Bid 97.59375
Cpn 3.5 Chg -0.2813 Bid 101.73438
Cpn 4.0 Chg -0.2188 Bid 104.98438

Treasury
UST 5 YR Chg -0.1875 Bid 98.94531 Yield 1.7230
UST 10 YR Chg -0.2969 Bid 98.85938 Yield 2.6310
UST 30 YR Chg -0.4375 Bid 98.81250 Yield 3.4390

Currency
Euro Bid 1.3545 Chg -0.0006
Pound Bid 1.6969 Chg 0.0042
Yen Bid 102.05 Chg 0.350
Light Crude
Last 106.65

Key Economic Data:
PPI for May
Final demand MM: Actual -0.2%, Consensus 0.1%, Last 0.6%.
Core Final demand MM: Actual -0.1%, Consensus 0.1%, Last 0.5%.
Final demand YY: Actual 2.0%, Consensus 2.4%, last 2.1%.
Core Final demand YY: Actual 2.0%, Consensus 2.3%, Last 1.9%.
6:55: Univ of Michigan Prelim for Jun
Sentiment: Consensus 83.0, Last 81.9.
Conditions: Consensus 95.7, Last 94.5.
Expectations: Consensus 74.6, Last 73.7.
1Yr Inflation: Last 3.3%.
5-Yr Inflation: Last 2.8%.
7:30: ECRI weekly index: Last 134.9.

Advice:
The Treasury yield curve approached its flattest level in almost five years as investors speculated the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates sooner than forecast. Longer-maturity bonds have outperformed this week as signs the U.S. recovery is uneven helped bolster demand for safer assets with extra yield. The difference between five- and 30-year yields fell toward the narrowest since 2009. Gilts dropped after Bank of England Governor Mark Carney said yesterday that the bank may raise its key interest rate earlier than investors
expect. You have a hawkish statement out of a central bank, said Ira Jersey, an interest-rate strategist in New York at Credit Suisse Group AG, one of 22 primary dealers that trade directly with the Fed. That could mean the Fed may not be too far behind. Threes and fives have to start pricing for that. That part of the curve is vulnerable to hawkish central bank policy. The 30-year yield rose three basis points, or 0.03 percentage point, to 3.41 percent at 9:05 a.m. New York time, according to Bloomberg Bond Trader data. The 3.375 percent bond maturing in May 2044 fell 15/32, or $4.69 per $1,000 face amount, to 98 27/32. The yield added one basis point this week. Yields on benchmark Treasury 10-year notes added three basis points to 2.63 percent to push the weekly gain to five basis points.

My position on MBS:
Short term stays Neutral. -- Thinking about going short.
Long term stays Short.

Long = I anticipate pricing to improve which leads to lower Rates.
Neutral = Market should stay close to open plus or minimums 25bps.
Short = I anticipate pricing to weaken which leads to higher Rates.

Short term = 1 - 2 days out
Long term = 30+ days out

Market Commentary (Dan Rawitch)

PPI was a negative number which is great for rates. Consumer Sentiment was also a miss. These things combined with yesterdays retail numbers should give us the fuel for a run up...but it's not happening yet. We should pop up above 102.00 and at a minimum move toward the center of the trading range. If not, we risk seeing the down channel we have formed, play out and that will take us to 102.50ish. The technicals are weak given the news we have seen lately and that should cause you some concern. Be careful!
 

Trusted Industry Advisor

San Diego Mortgage Rates - Jason Gordon - www.JasonGordonMortgage.com

The above information was compiled and distributed by San Diego Residential Mortgage Specialist, Jason E Gordon in an effort to provide transparency regarding true mortgage rate activity and market guidance to consumers and professionals interested in this activity. All Market Commentary is provided via The Mortgage Coach and/or their RateWatch technology software.

As a Certified Mortgage Planning Specialist (CMPS) Certified Distressed Property Expert (CDPE) and Certified Mortgage Coach (CMC), Jason E Gordon utilizes his advanced training to examine a prospective Client's complete financial picture, while carefully listening to their overall goals. If it is mutually agreed that a new loan makes sense to pursue, Jason strives to make the entire loan process as seamless as possible. He truly believes that providing open communication and patient educational guidance to his Clients and Business Alliances has been a pivotal component to building his business, while enhancing his reputation in the Mortgage Industry as a Trusted Advisor. Visit www.GordonMortgage.com or www.ApprovingSD.com or more information.

Click here for daily mortgage interest rate updates and projections for San Diego's best mortgage interest rates

For more information on topics like this, please feel free to visit www.GordonMortgage.com (an educational resource for Borrowers, Real Estate Agents, and Financial Professionals). Educational content provided by:

 

Jason E. Gordon

Branch Manager | Sr. Mortgage Loan Officer

CMPS, CDLP, RCS-D, CDPE, CMHS, CMC, NMLS 259027

 

Gordon Mortgage Group - AmeriFirst Financial Inc.

 

Office: 619-200-8031

Email: jgordon@amerifirst.us

www.GordonMortgage.com

 

11260 El Camino Real, Ste. 100, San Diego, CA 92130

 

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Recommended Links:

 

To see if you qualify (and to obtain a current market interest rate quote), click here for a secure online loan application form.

 

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Comment balloon 0 commentsJason E. Gordon • June 13 2014 05:20PM
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