Daily Mortgage Interest Rate Updates, Trends & Projections: July 2014

Mortgage Rate Update 7-24-14: Trends & Projections

We are amidst a volatile morning thus far today.  Jobless claims came in below expectations (their lowest level since February, 2006).  Mortgage Backed Securities declined immediately upon discovery of this news. New Home Sales also came in below expectations.  

The market has opened roughly 0.125 - 0.250 WORSE for the Points/Credits associated with any given interest rate option.

This daily mortgage interest rate report is designed to provide Borrowers & Real Estate Profesionals with factual data regarding where rates are at any given time and what trends are propelling current mortgage pricing on any given day. Feel free to browse the library and research historical rate updates dating back over 2 years at www.JasonGordon.info whenever desired.  To make things easier, I have also posted a quick report on How To Read The Charts Below.

Also, make sure to learn THE TOP 10 THINGS TO KNOW ABOUT MORTGAGE RATES (to help understand the relationship between rates & fees/credits) along with THE TRUTH BEHIND MORTGAGE QUOTES (to better understand the relationship between up-front closing costs and mortgage interest rates so you don't get duped by clever advertising campaigns). Remember, we all make better decisions in life when we have the actual facts to analyze...share this report with those whom you care about!

San Diego Mortgage Rates - Jason Gordon - www.JasonGordonMortgage.com

The Mortgage Street Smarts of where mortgage interest rates are going (and why):

The following information is current as of Thursday 7-24-2014 and will help you understand today's best mortgage rates. If you are a Buyer/Borrower who is still on the fence (or if you are a Real Estate Agent attempting to educate your "on the fence" Buyer), please review these trends and secure an historically low interest rate before it is too late.

The market closed Wednesday with a WORSENING to pricing. Wednesday's WORSENING netted a change of 16 basis points (bps).

(Note: Upward activity on these charts is GOOD, downward activity is BAD)

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The following chart summarizes todays market activity:

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The following chart shows market activity over the past 10 days (hint: green is good, red is bad):

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The following chart shows market activity over the past 1 month:

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Daily Interest Rate Snapshot (sample of rates from one of the country's largest Lenders...individual pricing will vary based on specific Borrower qualifications): NOTE: This Lender has quoted a 1.00% Origination Fee (1 Point) to accompany this pricing. It bears noting that this chart does not necessarily represent todays best mortgage rates.

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Market Commentary (Neil Trenerry)

FNMA - Month Aug
Cpn 3.0 Chg -0.1563 Bid 98.43750
Cpn 3.5 Chg -0.1406 Bid 102.29688
Cpn 4.0 Chg -0.1250 Bid 105.48438

UST 5 YR Chg -0.1641 Bid 99.71875 Yield 1.6850
UST 10 YR Chg -0.2344 Bid 100.03125 Yield 2.4960
UST 30 YR Chg -0.4219 Bid 101.67188 Yield 3.2860

Euro Bid 1.3470 Chg 0.0006
Pound Bid 1.6986 Chg -0.0056
Yen Bid 101.740 Chg 0.270

Light Crude
Last 102.99

Key Economic Data:

Initial Jobless Claims: Actual 284k, Consensus 308k, Last 302k, revised 303k.
Jobless Claims 4-wk avg: Actual 302.00k, Last 309.00k.
Continued Jobless Claims: Actual 2.500m, Consensus 2.510m, Last 2.507m, evised 2.508m.

6:45 Markit Mfg PMI Flash for Jul: Consensus 57.5, Last 57.3.

7:00: New Home Sales for Jun: Consensus 0.479m, Last 0.504m.

8:00: KC Fed Manufacturing for Jul: Last 2


The number of Americans filing applications for unemployment benefit unexpectedly dropped last week to the lowest level in more than eight years. Jobless claims fell by 19,000 to 284,000 in the week ended July 19, the fewest since February 2006 and lower than any
economist surveyed by Bloomberg forecast, a Labor Department report showed today in Washington. Applications can be volatile at this time of year because of auto plant shutdowns, even as state data showed nothing inconsistent with prior years, a Labor Department spokesman said as the data was released to the press. Fewer claims signal employers are reluctant to let go of staff as the talent pool shrinks and sales improve. A tightening labor market could lift wages and spur consumer spending, which accounts for about 70 percent of the economy. Companies have been running with very tight labor force levels and now as demand starts to pick up, businesses are finding themselves in some cases very labor constrained, Russell Price, a senior economist at Ameriprise Financial Inc. in Detroit, said before the report. As we start to see the demand continue to improve, we will start to see wage gains percolate. The median forecast of 50 economists surveyed by Bloomberg projected 307,000 claims would be filed last week. Estimates ranged from 295,000 to 320,000. The Labor Department revised the prior weeks reading to 303,000 from an initially reported 302,000.

My position on MBS:

Short term changes to Short
Long term stays Short.

Long = I anticipate pricing to improve which leads to lower Rates.
Neutral = Market should stay close to open plus or minimums 25bps.
Short = I anticipate pricing to weaken which leads to higher Rates.

Short term = 1 - 2 days out
Long term = 30+ days out

Market Commentary (Dan Rawitch)

The bond market is off 20bps from yesterdays close. We failed to break through the top side of the trading range and as I mentioned yesterday, will now drift down and test the bottom. I do not see this a surprise or a "sell off" at this time. We are simply moving sideways in the range that has been in play for several weeks. We did get an amazingly good Jobless claims number which added to the technical pressures the market was feeling. On the flip side New home sales missed expectations by a HUGE margin. I was looking at that number earlier in the week and was surprised to see that in spite of the New Home sales growth we are still 60% below a normal market and 3x lower than we were from 2003-2008. This market has a long way to go and needs both low rates and job growth to fuel those needs. 

Trusted Industry Advisor

San Diego Mortgage Rates - Jason Gordon - www.JasonGordonMortgage.com

The above information was compiled and distributed by San Diego Residential Mortgage Specialist, Jason E Gordon in an effort to provide transparency regarding true mortgage rate activity and market guidance to consumers and professionals interested in this activity. All Market Commentary is provided via The Mortgage Coach and/or their RateWatch technology software.

As a Certified Mortgage Planning Specialist (CMPS) Certified Distressed Property Expert (CDPE) Certified Mortgage Coach (CMC), and Certified Military Housing Specialist (CMHS), Jason E Gordon utilizes his advanced training to examine a prospective Client's complete financial picture, while carefully listening to their overall goals. If it is mutually agreed that a new loan makes sense to pursue, Jason strives to make the entire loan process as seamless as possible. He truly believes that providing open communication and patient educational guidance to his Clients and Business Alliances has been a pivotal component to building his business, while enhancing his reputation in the Mortgage Industry as a Trusted Advisor. Visit www.GordonMortgage.com or www.CrossApproval.com or more information.

Click here for daily mortgage interest rate updates and projections for San Diego's best mortgage interest rates

For more information on topics like this, please feel free to visit www.GordonMortgage.com (an educational resource for Borrowers, Real Estate Agents, and Financial Professionals). Educational content provided by:


Jason E. Gordon

Branch Manager | Sr. Mortgage Loan Officer



Gordon Mortgage Group - AmeriFirst Financial Inc.


Office: 619-200-8031

Email: jgordon@amerifirst.us



11440 W. Bernardo Court, Ste. 300, San Diego, CA 92127


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Comment balloon 1 commentJason E. Gordon • July 24 2014 11:27AM
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