Daily Mortgage Interest Rate Updates, Trends & Projections: August 2014

Mortgage Rate Update 8-15-14: Trends & Projections

July Industrial Production increased 0.4% from June, which was close to expectations. Capacity Utilization rose to the highest level since June 2006. July PPI increased 0.1% from June, matching the consensus, and it was 1.7% higher than one year ago.  Core PPI, which excludesfood & energy, increased 0.2%, also m atching the consensus. Core PPI was 1.6% higher than one year ago. Empire State dropped to 14.7, below the consensus of 20.0. Consumer Sentiments came in below expectations. The real mover this morning were remarks from the Minneapolis Fed Chair who indicated that the Labor Market is some way from the Fed's goal. This caused the stock market to decline and MBS to improve.

Compared to yesterday's closing, the market has opened with a 0.250% IMPROVEMENT for the Points/Credits associated with any given interest rate option.

This daily mortgage interest rate report is designed to provide Borrowers & Real Estate Profesionals with factual data regarding where rates are at any given time and what trends are propelling current mortgage pricing on any given day. Feel free to browse the library and research historical rate updates dating back over 2 years at www.JasonGordon.info whenever desired.  To make things easier, I have also posted a quick report on How To Read The Charts Below.

Also, make sure to learn THE TOP 10 THINGS TO KNOW ABOUT MORTGAGE RATES (to help understand the relationship between rates & fees/credits) along with THE TRUTH BEHIND MORTGAGE QUOTES (to better understand the relationship between up-front closing costs and mortgage interest rates so you don't get duped by clever advertising campaigns). Remember, we all make better decisions in life when we have the actual facts to analyze...share this report with those whom you care about!

San Diego Mortgage Rates - Jason Gordon - www.JasonGordonMortgage.com

The Mortgage Street Smarts of where mortgage interest rates are going (and why):

The following information is current as of Friday 8-15-2014 and will help you understand today's best mortgage rates. If you are a Buyer/Borrower who is still on the fence (or if you are a Real Estate Agent attempting to educate your "on the fence" Buyer), please review these trends and secure an historically low interest rate before it is too late.

The market closed Thursday with an IMPROVEMENT to pricing. Thursday's IMPROVEMENT netted a change of 3 basis points (bps).

(Note: Upward activity on these charts is GOOD, downward activity is BAD)

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The following chart summarizes todays market activity:

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The following chart shows market activity over the past 10 days (hint: green is good, red is bad):

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The following chart shows market activity over the past 1 month:

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Daily Interest Rate Snapshot (sample of rates from one of the country's largest Lenders...individual pricing will vary based on specific Borrower qualifications): NOTE: This Lender has quoted a 1.00% Origination Fee (1 Point) to accompany this pricing. It bears noting that this chart does not necessarily represent todays best mortgage rates.

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Market Commentary (Neil Trenerry)

FNMA - Month Aug
Cpn 3.0 Chg 0.0625 Bid 99.04688
Cpn 3.5 Chg 0.0313 Bid 102.67188
Cpn 4.0 Chg 0.0156 Bid 105.71875

UST 5 YR Chg -0.0234 Bid 100.23438 Yield 1.5760
UST 10 YR Chg 0.0781 Bid 99.84375 Yield 2.3930
UST 30 YR Chg 0.4531 Bid 98.93750 Yield 3.1800

Euro Bid 1.3386 Chg 0.0024
Pound Bid 1.6685 Chg 0.0002
Yen Bid 102.670 Chg 0.240
Light Crude
Last 95.96

Key Economic Data:
NY Fed Manufacturing: Actual 14.69, Consensus 20.00, Last 25.60.
PPI Final Demand for Jul
Index MM: Actual 0.1%, Consensus 0.1%, last 0.4%.
Core MM: Actual 0.2%, Consensus 0.2%, Last 0.2%.
Index YY: Actual 1.7%, Consensus 1.8%, last 1.9%.
Core YY: Actual 1.6%, Consensus 1.6%, last 1.8%.
Foreign buying, T-Bonds for Jun: Actual -18.7b, Last 19.4b, Revised 18.6b.
Overall Net capital flow for Jun: Actual -153.5b, Last 35.5b, Revised 33.1b.
Industrial Output for Jul: Actual 0.4%, Consensus 0.3%, Last 0.2%.
Manu Output for Jul: Actual 1.0%, Consensus 0.4%, Last 0.1%.
Capacity Utilization for Jul: Actual 79.2%, Consensus 79.2%, last 79.1%.

6:55: Univ of Michigan for Aug
Sentiment: Consensus 82.5, Last 81.8.
Condition: Consensus 97.8, Last 97.4.
Expectation: Consensus 73.0, Last 71.8.
1yr Inflation: Last 3.3%
5-Yr Inflation: Last 2.7%.
7:30: ECRI weekly index: Last 135.8.

Treasuries rose for a second week as uneven U.S. economic data suggested the Federal Reserve will be slow to raise interest rates. The yield on the 30-year bond touched the lowest in more than a year as a report showed manufacturing in the New York region fell more than forecast added to signs the U.S. economy is struggling to gain traction. Economists reduced year-end forecasts for the benchmark 10-year note to below 3 percent for the first time in more than a year. Treasuries have returned 4.12 percent this year, after losing 3.4 percent in 2013. Youre seeing economic data that are not by any means becoming poor, but they are not showing the strength the market was looking for in order to assume the Fed may have to raise rates, said Jason Rogan, managing director of U.S. government trading at Guggenheim Securities, a New York-based brokerage for institutional investors. Thirty-year bond yields fell two basis points, or 0.02 percentage point, to 3.17 percent at 9:08 a.m. in New York, according to Bloomberg Bond Trader data. It was the lowest level since June 2013. U.S. 10-year yields fell two basis points to 2.39 percentt 6:52 a.m. in New York. Manufacturing in the region covered by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York expanded at a slower pace in August, a report showed today. The central banks Empire State Index fell to 14.7 from a four-year high of 25.6 in July. Readings greater than zero signal growth. Wholesale prices in the U.S. rose at a slower pace in July as fuel costs dropped by the most in eight months. The 0.1 percent increase in the producer price index matched the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg and followed a 0.4 percent gain the prior month, a Labor Department report showed.

My position on MBS:

Short term stays Long
Long term stays Short.

Long = I anticipate pricing to improve which leads to lower Rates.
Neutral = Market should stay close to open plus or minimums 25bps.
Short = I anticipate pricing to weaken which leads to higher Rates.

Short term = 1 - 2 days out
Long term = 30+ days out

Market Commentary (Dan Rawitch)

The Rally continues...although the news was mixed today, there was enough bond friendly information to support the move up. We are getting VERY close a MAJOR point of resistance and I would not get too cocky here. This a good time to encourage your sideline borrowers to get in the game. If we bounce off resistance...it can take a while to work back up the channel. Yes, I think we are going to see considerably lower rates in the months to come...but the time between now and then, could be volatile and uncertain. This is a good time to mention that I am confident in my reasoning for lower rates, but sadly...I am not a psychic. I wish I had those powers...I'd be hanging out at the horse track and not typing this message.  

Trusted Industry Advisor

San Diego Mortgage Rates - Jason Gordon - www.JasonGordonMortgage.com

The above information was compiled and distributed by San Diego Residential Mortgage Specialist, Jason E Gordon in an effort to provide transparency regarding true mortgage rate activity and market guidance to consumers and professionals interested in this activity. All Market Commentary is provided via The Mortgage Coach and/or their RateWatch technology software.

As a Certified Mortgage Planning Specialist (CMPS) Certified Distressed Property Expert (CDPE) Certified Mortgage Coach (CMC), and Certified Military Housing Specialist (CMHS), Jason E Gordon utilizes his advanced training to examine a prospective Client's complete financial picture, while carefully listening to their overall goals. If it is mutually agreed that a new loan makes sense to pursue, Jason strives to make the entire loan process as seamless as possible. He truly believes that providing open communication and patient educational guidance to his Clients and Business Alliances has been a pivotal component to building his business, while enhancing his reputation in the Mortgage Industry as a Trusted Advisor. Visit www.GordonMortgage.com or www.CrossApproval.com or more information.

Click here for daily mortgage interest rate updates and projections for San Diego's best mortgage interest rates

For more information on topics like this, please feel free to visit www.GordonMortgage.com (an educational resource for Borrowers, Real Estate Agents, and Financial Professionals). Educational content provided by:


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Office: 619-200-8031

Email: jgordon@amerifirst.us



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Comment balloon 0 commentsJason E. Gordon • August 15 2014 08:40AM
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