Daily Mortgage Interest Rate Updates, Trends & Projections: May 2015

Mortgage Rate Update 5-12-2015: Trends & Projections

Brutal day yesterday! Mortgage Backed Securities opened much lower this morning, but have since moved back to flat/positive territory following weaker than expeted JOLTS data and a bounce back from large declines yesterday.

Compared to yesterday's closing, the market has opened within 0.125 to the Points/Credits associated with any given interest rate option.

This daily mortgage interest rate report is designed to provide Borrowers & Real Estate Professionals with factual data regarding where rates are at any given time and what trends are propelling current mortgage pricing on any given day. Feel free to browse the library and research historical rate updates dating back over 2 years at www.JasonGordon.info whenever desired.  To make things easier, I have also posted a quick report on How To Read The Charts Below.

Also, make sure to learn THE TOP 10 THINGS TO KNOW ABOUT MORTGAGE RATES (to help understand the relationship between rates & fees/credits) along with THE TRUTH BEHIND MORTGAGE QUOTES (to better understand the relationship between up-front closing costs and mortgage interest rates so you don't get duped by clever advertising campaigns). Remember, we all make better decisions in life when we have the actual facts to analyze...share this report with those whom you care about!

San Diego Mortgage Rates - Jason Gordon - www.JasonGordonMortgage.com

The Mortgage Street Smarts of where mortgage interest rates are going (and why):

The following information is current as of Tuesday 5-12-2015 and will help you understand today's best mortgage rates. If you are a Buyer/Borrower who is still on the fence (or if you are a Real Estate Agent attempting to educate your "on the fence" Buyer), please review these trends and secure an historically low interest rate before it is too late.

The market closed Monday with a SIGNIFICANT WORSENING to pricing. Monday's SIGNIFICANT WORSENING netted a change of 65 basis points (bps).

(Note: Upward activity on these charts is GOOD, downward activity is BAD)

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The following chart summarizes todays market activity:

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The following chart shows market activity over the past 10 days (hint: green is good, red is bad)

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The following chart shows market activity over the past 1 month:

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Daily Interest Rate Snapshot (sample of rates from one of the country's largest Lenders...individual pricing will vary based on specific Borrower qualifications): NOTE: This Lender has quoted a 1.00% Origination Fee (1 Point) to accompany this pricing. It bears noting that this chart does not necessarily represent todays best mortgage rates.

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Market Commentary (Neil Trenerry)

Market Update

Cpn 2.5 Chg -0.2656 Bid 96.42188
Cpn 3.0 Chg -0.1094 Bid 100.25000
Cpn 3.5 Chg -0.0625 Bid 103.64063
Cpn 4.0 Chg -0.0156 Bid 106.29688
FNMA Cpn 3.0 Forward Delivery over current Month pricing
1 Month Chg 0.0703 Bid 99.98438 Spread 0.21875
2 Months Chg -0.0313 Bid 99.75000 Spread 0.25000

UST 5 YR Chg -0.0000 Bid 98.92188 Yield 1.6020
UST 10 YR Chg -0.0625 Bid 97.43750 Yield 2.2940
UST 30 YR Chg -0.1094 Bid 89.15625 Yield 3.0570
Euro Bid 1.1231 Chg 0.0077
Pound Bid 1.5650 Chg 0.0067
Yen Bid 120.10 Chg 0.050
Light Crude
Last 59.92

Key Economic Data:
MM: Actual 0.0%, last 0.4%.
YY: Actual 2.1%, last 1.6%.
NFIB Business Optimism for Apr: Actual 96.9, Last 95.20.
7:00: JOLTS Job Openings for Mar: Consensus 5.10m, Last 5.133m.
11:00: Federal Budget for Apr: Consensus 154.8b, Last -53.0b.

U.S., European and Japanese bonds fell as governments in some of the biggest markets sell debt amid a rout in fixed-income securities. The global selloff is intensifying after already pushing U.S. yields to the highest level this year and driving Germanys
10-year yield 14 times higher in less than a month. The U.S. plans to auction $24 billion of three-year notes Tuesday, the same amount of 10-year securities Wednesday and $16 billion of 30-year bonds May 14. It all sounds like were absolutely doomed in the bond markets but I think it is a realization thats hitting bond investors that they need to be extremely cautious at the moment, Bill Blain, a London-based strategist at Mint Partners Ltd. said in an interview on Bloomberg Televisions On The Move with Jonathan Ferro. I dont think weve seen the end of this period of play, but at the same time I do think there are bottom fishers, bargain hunters, waiting to come in when they see sovereign-bond market yields make sense. Benchmark Treasury 10-year yields rose four basis points, or 0.04 percentage point, to 2.32 percent as of 8:24 a.m. New York time, and touched the highest since Nov. 14. The yield jumped 13 basis points Monday. The 2 percent security due in February 2025 fell 11/32, or $3.44 per $1,000 face amount, to 97 6/32. Japanese 10-year bond yields increased six basis points to 0.45 percent and Australias added 19 basis points to 3.05 percent. Germanys 10-year bund yield rose nine basis points to 0.70 percent, up from a record-low 0.049 percent reached on April 17.

My position on MBS:

Short term Stays Short.
Long term Stays Short.

Long = I anticipate pricing to improve which leads to lower Rates.
Neutral = Market should stay close to open plus or minimums 25bps.
Short = I anticipate pricing to weaken which leads to higher Rates.

Short term = 1 - 2 days out
Long term = 30+ days out


Market Commentary (Dan Rawitch)

We are in the midst of a technical sell off, sparked for no good reason other than fear of what the Fed may or may not do at the next meeting. Some traders reacted to the fact that Greece made their debt payment yesterday.. but that is not enough to trigger what we are seeing. It is important that we hold 100.45 at this point. We are just about there if we add back in the 15 bps we lost from the Rollover.

The treasuries are starting to find some buyers, but this has not yet transferred over to the MBS market. When Sell offs of this magnitude trigger program trading, it is hard to call the bottom or to explain. It really boils down to more fear than optimism in the market. I firmly believe is unfounded and that the fear will subside and the facts of the market place will matter. Also, as previously mentioned, the market has not priced in MORE than necessary to account for a FED move up. So, when the Fed does act, we will most likely see a significant rally.

Tomorrow is retail sales... I anticipate an over reaction to that number, regardless of whether it is positive or a negitive number.

Lets hope for a 100.50 close or better today!

Trusted Industry Advisor

Jason Gordon Mortgage - www.GordonMortgage.com

The above information was compiled and distributed by San Diego Residential Mortgage Specialist, Jason Gordon in an effort to provide transparency regarding true mortgage rate activity and market guidance to consumers and professionals interested in this activity. All Market Commentary is provided via The Mortgage Coach and/or their RateWatch technology software.

As a Certified Mortgage Planning Specialist (CMPS) Certified Distressed Property Expert (CDPE) Certified Mortgage Coach (CMC), and Certified Military Housing Specialist (CMHS), Jason E Gordon utilizes his advanced training to examine a prospective Client's complete financial picture, while carefully listening to their overall goals. If it is mutually agreed that a new loan makes sense to pursue, Jason strives to make the entire loan process as seamless as possible. He truly believes that providing open communication and patient educational guidance to his Clients and Business Alliances has been a pivotal component to building his business, while enhancing his reputation in the Mortgage Industry as a Trusted Advisor. Visit www.GordonMortgage.com or www.CrossApproval.com or more information.

Click here for daily mortgage interest rate updates and projections for San Diego's best mortgage interest rates

For more information on topics like this, please feel free to visit www.GordonMortgage.com (an educational resource for Borrowers, Real Estate Agents, and Financial Professionals). Educational content provided by:


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Comment balloon 1 commentJason E. Gordon • May 12 2015 08:21AM
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