Daily Mortgage Interest Rate Updates, Trends & Projections: June 2015

Mortgage Rate Update 6-12-2015: Trends & Projections

Great day yesterday, but not so much thus far today. PPI and Core PPI both came in at consensus, while Consumer Sentiment was higher than expected.

Compared to yesterday's closing, the market has opened within 0.125 to the Points/Credits associated with any given interest rate option.

This daily mortgage interest rate report is designed to provide Borrowers & Real Estate Professionals with factual data regarding where rates are at any given time and what trends are propelling current mortgage pricing on any given day. Feel free to browse the library and research historical rate updates dating back over 2 years at www.JasonGordon.info whenever desired.  To make things easier, I have also posted a quick report on How To Read The Charts Below.

Also, make sure to learn THE TOP 10 THINGS TO KNOW ABOUT MORTGAGE RATES (to help understand the relationship between rates & fees/credits) along with THE TRUTH BEHIND MORTGAGE QUOTES (to better understand the relationship between up-front closing costs and mortgage interest rates so you don't get duped by clever advertising campaigns). Remember, we all make better decisions in life when we have the actual facts to analyze...share this report with those whom you care about!

San Diego Mortgage Rates - Jason Gordon - www.JasonGordonMortgage.com

The Mortgage Street Smarts of where mortgage interest rates are going (and why):

The following information is current as of Friday 6-12-2015 and will help you understand today's best mortgage rates. If you are a Buyer/Borrower who is still on the fence (or if you are a Real Estate Agent attempting to educate your "on the fence" Buyer), please review these trends and secure an historically low interest rate before it is too late.

The market closed Thursday with a SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT to pricing. Thursday's SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT netted a change of 54 basis points (bps).

(Note: Upward activity on these charts is GOOD, downward activity is BAD)

San Diego Mortgage Rates - www.GordonMortgage.com

The following chart summarizes todays market activity:

San Diego Mortgage Rates - www.GordonMortgage.com

The following chart shows market activity over the past 10 days (hint: green is good, red is bad)

San Diego Mortgage Rates - www.GordonMortgage.com

The following chart shows market activity over the past 1 month:

San Diego Mortgage Rates - www.GordonMortgage.com

Daily Interest Rate Snapshot (sample of rates from one of the country's largest Lenders...individual pricing will vary based on specific Borrower qualifications): NOTE: This Lender has quoted a 1.00% Origination Fee (1 Point) to accompany this pricing. It bears noting that this chart does not necessarily represent todays best mortgage rates.

San Diego Mortgage Rates - www.GordonMortgage.com

Market Commentary (Neil Trenerry)

FNMA
Cpn 2.5 Chg -0.0625 Bid 95.76563
Cpn 3.0 Chg -0.0938 Bid 99.29688
Cpn 3.5 Chg -0.0781 Bid 102.84375
Cpn 4.0 Chg -0.0625 Bid 105.79688
FNMA Cpn 3.0 Forward Delivery over current Month pricing
1 Month Chg 0.0000 Bid 99.04688 Spread 0.25000
2 Months Chg 0.0000 Bid 98.77734 Spread 0.26953

Treasury
UST 5 YR Chg -0.1172 Bid 98.79688 Yield 1.7540
UST 10 YR Chg -0.1563 Bid 97.60938 Yield 2.3970
UST 30 YR Chg -0.2500 Bid 97.87500 Yield 3.1100

Currency
Euro Bid 1.1221 Chg -0.0036
Pound Bid 1.5487 Chg -0.0027
Yen Bid 123.75 Chg 0.360
Light Crude
Last 60.09

Key Economic Data:
.PPI for May
Final Demand MM: Actual 0.5%, Consensus 0.4%, last -0.4%.
Final Demand YY: Actual -1.1%, Consensus -1.1%, Last -1.3%.
Ex Food/Energy MM: Actual 0.1%, Consensus 0.1%, Last -0.2%.
Ex Food/Energy YY: Actual 0.6%, Consensus 0.7%, last 0.8%.
7:00: Univ of Michigan Prelim for Jun
Sentiment: Consensus 91.5, Last 90.7.
Conditions: Consensus 96.5, Last 100.8.
Expectations: Consensus 85.0, Last 84.2.
1Yr Inflation: Last 2.8%.
5-Yr Inflation: Last 2.8%.
ECRI Weekly Index: Last 133.1.

Advice:
Wholesale prices in the U.S. rose in May as the biggest jump in fuel costs in at least five years swamped muted advances in other categories. The 0.5 percent increase in the producer-price index followed a 0.4 percent decline the prior month, Labor Department figures showed Friday in Washington. The median forecast of 72 economists surveyed by Bloomberg called for a 0.4 percent advance. Costs dropped 1.1 percent over the past 12 months. Wholesale-cost gains in two of the past three months may eventually filter through to consumers, helping reassure Federal Reserve policy makers that inflation is progressing toward their target as they consider raising interest rates. At the same time, the fallout from a stronger dollar and slower growth
overseas means pipeline price pressures are unlikely to surge. Inflation will creep higher over the summer, Thomas Costerg, a senior economist at Standard Chartered Bank in New York, said before the report. Energy prices are actually picking up. Commodity costs have generally stabilized. Projections in the Bloomberg survey ranged from a drop of 0.1 percent to an advance of 0.7 percent. Food prices increased 0.8 percent in May, the report showed. Energy expenses climbed 5.9 percent, the biggest gain in data going back to December 2009. That accounted for about 80 percent of the total increase in producer prices, the Labor Department said. Crude oil costs have shown signs of stabilizing after a plunge to a six-year low of about $43 in mid-March. West Texas Intermediate for July delivery was at $60.77 a barrel at the close on Thursday on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Thats still well below last years high of $107.26.

My position on MBS:

Short term Stays Short.
Long term Stays Short.

Long = I anticipate pricing to improve which leads to lower Rates.
Neutral = Market should stay close to open plus or minimums 25bps.
Short = I anticipate pricing to weaken which leads to higher Rates.

Short term = 1 - 2 days out
Long term = 30+ days out
 

Market Commentary (Dan Rawitch)

 
Nice rally yesterday and so far this morning I am liking the tone of the market. Greece is getting scary again and I can see how easily that situation can fall apart. PPI (the core number) came out as expected, which is good, given the number was a very low increase of .01. As much as I would like to say this rally constitutes a trend reversal...I cant say that yet. So..I would take this opportunity to lock! We need a couple more days of higher highs and higher lows to confirm a reversal. That said, a closing above 99.50 will be bullish. This market is still dislocated from any traditional measurement system...so my opinions continue to come with little confidence.  
  

Bonus Summary

San Diego Mortgage Rates - www.GordonMortgage.com

Trusted Industry Advisor

Jason Gordon Mortgage - www.GordonMortgage.com

The above information was compiled and distributed by San Diego Residential Mortgage Specialist, Jason Gordon in an effort to provide transparency regarding true mortgage rate activity and market guidance to consumers and professionals interested in this activity. All Market Commentary is provided via The Mortgage Coach and/or their RateWatch technology software.

As a Certified Mortgage Planning Specialist (CMPS) Certified Distressed Property Expert (CDPE) Certified Mortgage Coach (CMC), and Certified Military Housing Specialist (CMHS), Jason E Gordon utilizes his advanced training to examine a prospective Client's complete financial picture, while carefully listening to their overall goals. If it is mutually agreed that a new loan makes sense to pursue, Jason strives to make the entire loan process as seamless as possible. He truly believes that providing open communication and patient educational guidance to his Clients and Business Alliances has been a pivotal component to building his business, while enhancing his reputation in the Mortgage Industry as a Trusted Advisor. Visit www.GordonMortgage.com or www.CrossApproval.com or more information.

Click here for daily mortgage interest rate updates and projections for San Diego's best mortgage interest rates

For more information on topics like this, please feel free to visit www.GordonMortgage.com (an educational resource for Borrowers, Real Estate Agents, and Financial Professionals). Educational content provided by:

 

Jason E. Gordon

Branch Manager | Sr. Mortgage Loan Officer

CMPS,  RCS-D, CDPE, CMHS, CMC, NMLS 259027

 

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Comment balloon 0 commentsJason E. Gordon • June 12 2015 11:57AM
Mortgage Rate Update 6-12-2015: Trends & Projections
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Great day yesterday, but not so much thus far today. PPI and Core PPI both came in at consensus, while Consumer Sentiment was higher than expected. Compared to yesterday's closing, the market has opened within 0. 125 to the Points/Credits associated… more