Daily Mortgage Interest Rate Updates, Trends & Projections: February 2016

Mortgage Rate Update 2-10-2016: Trends & Projections

Volatile day thus far for Mortgage Backed Securities.  Despite a rough opening, we have had a mid-day pricing improvement given the declines in stocks!

Compared to Tuesday's closing, the market has opened with a 0.125 worsening to the Points/Credits associated with any given interest rate option (but has since improved by 0.250 via a mid-day pricing adjustment!).

This daily mortgage interest rate report is designed to provide Borrowers & Real Estate Professionals with factual data regarding where rates are at any given time and what trends are propelling current mortgage pricing on any given day. Feel free to browse the library and research historical rate updates dating back over 2 years at www.JasonGordon.info whenever desired.  To make things easier, I have also posted a quick report on How To Read The Charts Below.

Also, make sure to learn THE TOP 10 THINGS TO KNOW ABOUT MORTGAGE RATES (to help understand the relationship between rates & fees/credits) along with THE TRUTH BEHIND MORTGAGE QUOTES (to better understand the relationship between up-front closing costs and mortgage interest rates so you don't get duped by clever advertising campaigns). Remember, we all make better decisions in life when we have the actual facts to analyze...share this report with those whom you care about!

San Diego Mortgage Rates - Jason Gordon - www.JasonGordonMortgage.com

The Mortgage Street Smarts of where mortgage interest rates are going (and why):

The following information is current as of Wednesday 2-10-2016 and will help you understand today's best mortgage rates. If you are a Buyer/Borrower who is still on the fence (or if you are a Real Estate Agent attempting to educate your "on the fence" Buyer), please review these trends and secure an historically low interest rate before it is too late.

The market closed Tuesday with a WORSENING to pricing. Wednesday's WORSENING netted a change of 15 basis points (bps).

(Note: Upward activity on these charts is GOOD, downward activity is BAD)

Jason Gordon Mortgage, San Diego, CA

The following chart summarizes today's market activity:

Jason Gordon Mortgage, San Diego, CA

The following chart shows market activity over the past 10 days (hint: green is good, red is bad)

 Jason Gordon Mortgage, San Diego, CA

The following chart shows market activity over the past 1 month:

Jason Gordon Mortgage, San Diego, CA

Daily Interest Rate Snapshot (sample of rates from one of the country's largest Lenders...individual pricing will vary based on specific Borrower qualifications).

NOTE: This Lender has quoted a scenario involving a 740+ credit score, 25% down payment, owner occupied, single family residence, with impound account, with a loan amount up to $417,000 to accompany this pricing.

It bears noting that this chart does not necessarily represent today's best mortgage rates.

Jason Gordon Mortgage, San Diego, CA

 Beware of relying on Interest Rate Quotes like the one above!  


2016 Economic Forecast (Barry Habib)


Market Commentary (Neil Trennery)

Market Update
FNMA in 32s
Cpn 2.5 Chg -0.031 Bid 99.24
Cpn 3.0 Chg -0.040 Bid 102.126
Cpn 3.5 Chg -0.01+ Bid 104.23+
Cpn 4.0 Chg -0.005 Bid 106.203
Treasury in 32s
UST 5 YR Chg -0.050 Bid 100.290 Yield 1.1850
UST 10 YR Chg -0.050 Bid 104.16+ Yield 1.7437
UST 30 YR Chg -0.062 Bid 109.04+ Yield 2.5585

Bank Rates
Discount 1.00%
Fed Funds 0.50%
Prime 3.50%
Euro Bid 1.12282
Pound Bid 1.44851
Yen Bid 114.716

7:00: Fed Chair Speech
10:00 10-Yr Treasury Auction.
1:00: Monthly Budget Statement for Jan: Consensus $47.5b, Last -$17.5b.

Treasuries fell before a scheduled auction of 10-year notes that may draw the lowest yield since 2012, and as Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen stuck to her call for gradual interest-rate increases. Benchmark 10-year notes declined for the first time in five days, pushing yields up from the lowest level in a year reached Tuesday. Treasuries pared losses after Yellen said in prepared remarks to the House Financial Services Committee that market turmoil may deter the central bank from the multiple increases that officials have forecast for 2016. She has done a good job of not taking any of her options off the table, said Guy Haselmann, head of capital-markets strategy at Bank of Nova Scotia in New York, one of the 22 primary dealers that trade with the Fed. Shes in a wait-and-see mode. At the same time she has to acknowledge what the credit markets are sort of indicating, that there is some tightening of financial conditions. Government bonds have gained this year as turmoil in
equity, credit and commodity markets boosts demand for the safest fixed-income assets amid concern that global growth is slowing. Traders have pared bets on when the Fed will move again after policy makers in December boosted rates for the first time in almost a decade and signaled they expect four more increases this year. Treasury 10-year note yields rose three basis points, or 0.03 percentage point, to 1.76 percent as of 8:51 a.m. New York time, according to Bloomberg Bond Trader data. The 2.25 percent security due in November 2025 fell 1/4, or $2.50 per $1,000 face amount, to 104 14/32. The yield dropped to 1.68 percent Tuesday, the lowest since Feb. 3, 2015. The $23 billion of notes maturing in February 2026 scheduled to be sold Wednesday yielded 1.76 percent in pre-auction trading, which would be the lowest since a December 2012 sale that yielded 1.65 percent. At the previous auction of 10-year debt on Jan. 13 the notes drew a yield of 2.09 percent, the lowest since October. The low yields in the primary market may prove a deterrent. Three-year notes auctioned on Tuesday drew the least demand since 2009 as the securities were sold with the lowest yield in almost two years. There are two conflicting things: the general worries about the global economy and the low yield, said Birgit Figge, a fixed-income strategist at DZ Bank AG in Frankfurt. The auction could be poor because of the low yield. Treasuries returned 3.2 percent this year through Tuesday,
according to Bloomberg World Bond Indexes. In 2015, they gained 0.9 percent.

My position on MBS:

Short term Stays Long.
Long term Changes to Neutral.

Long = I anticipate pricing to improve which leads to lower Rates.
Neutral = Market should stay close to open plus or minimums 25bps.
Short = I anticipate pricing to weaken which leads to higher Rates.

Short term = 1 - 2 days out
Long term = 30+ days out

Market Commentary (Dan Rawitch)

This mornings gap down opening was largely resulting from the monthly bond rollover. Other than that, MBS are only slight down. Treasuries are relativel y Flat , the ten year at 1.74. Later today we get the results from the ten year bond auction, so keep an eye open for that news. For now, I see us trading between 102.40 and 102.80, but it would look that way until the chart normalizes from this mornings rollover. The news gets a little bigger as the week goes on, with retail sales, business inventories and Michigan sentiment coming.


Trusted Industry Advisor

Jason Gordon Mortgage - www.GordonMortgage.com

The above information was compiled and distributed by San Diego Residential Mortgage Specialist, Jason Gordon in an effort to provide transparency regarding true mortgage rate activity and market guidance to consumers and professionals interested in this activity. All Market Commentary is provided via The Mortgage Coach and/or their RateWatch technology software.

As a Certified Mortgage Planning Specialist (CMPS) Certified Distressed Property Expert (CDPE) Certified Mortgage Coach (CMC), and Certified Military Housing Specialist (CMHS), Jason E Gordon utilizes his advanced training to examine a prospective Client's complete financial picture, while carefully listening to their overall goals. If it is mutually agreed that a new loan makes sense to pursue, Jason strives to make the entire loan process as seamless as possible. He truly believes that providing open communication and patient educational guidance to his Clients and Business Alliances has been a pivotal component to building his business, while enhancing his reputation in the Mortgage Industry as a Trusted Advisor. Visit www.GordonMortgage.com or www.CrossApproval.com or more information.

Click here for daily mortgage interest rate updates and projections for San Diego's best mortgage interest rates

For more information on topics like this, please feel free to visit www.GordonMortgage.com (an educational resource for Borrowers, Real Estate Agents, and Financial Professionals). Educational content provided by:


Jason E. Gordon

Branch Manager | Sr. Mortgage Loan Officer



Gordon Mortgage Group - AmeriFirst Financial Inc.


Office: 619-200-8031

Email: jgordon@amerifirst.us



11440 W. Bernardo Court, Ste. 300, San Diego, CA 92127


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Comment balloon 0 commentsJason E. Gordon • February 10 2016 01:06PM
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