Daily Mortgage Interest Rate Updates, Trends & Projections: Mortgage Rate Update: 6-2-16: Trends & Projections

Mortgage Rate Update: 6-2-16: Trends & Projections

Mortgage Backed Securities are up thus far today after declines yesterday.  The European Central Bank (ECB) made no change in policy, as expected. The ECB expects to leave accommodative monetary policy in place for quite a while.  In the USA, the ADP estimate for private sector job gains in May was 173K, very close to the consensus of $175K. Weekly jobless claims fell to 267K, which was also very close to expectations.

Compared to Wednesday's closing, the market has opened with a 0.125  worsening to the Points/Credits associated with any given interest rate option.

This daily mortgage interest rate report is designed to provide Borrowers & Real Estate Professionals with factual data regarding where rates are at any given time and what trends are propelling current mortgage pricing on any given day. Feel free to browse the library and research historical rate updates dating back over 2 years at www.JasonGordon.info whenever desired.  To make things easier, I have also posted a quick report on How To Read The Charts Below.

Also, make sure to learn THE TOP 10 THINGS TO KNOW ABOUT MORTGAGE RATES (to help understand the relationship between rates & fees/credits) along with THE TRUTH BEHIND MORTGAGE QUOTES (to better understand the relationship between up-front closing costs and mortgage interest rates so you don't get duped by clever advertising campaigns). Remember, we all make better decisions in life when we have the actual facts to analyze...share this report with those whom you care about!

San Diego Mortgage Rates - Jason Gordon - www.JasonGordonMortgage.com

The Mortgage Street Smarts of where mortgage interest rates are going (and why):

The following information is current as of Thursday 6-2-2016 and will help you understand today's best mortgage rates. If you are a Buyer/Borrower who is still on the fence (or if you are a Real Estate Agent attempting to educate your "on the fence" Buyer), please review these trends and secure an historically low interest rate before it is too late.

The market closed Wednesday with a  WORSENING to pricing. Friday's WORSENING netted a change of 18 basis points (bps).

(Note: Upward activity on these charts is GOOD, downward activity is BAD)

San Diego Mortgage - Jason Gordon - AmeriFirst Financial - NMLS 259027

The following chart summarizes today's market activity:

San Diego Mortgage - Jason Gordon - AmeriFirst Financial - NMLS 259027

The following chart shows market activity over the past 10 days (hint: green is good, red is bad)

San Diego Mortgage - Jason Gordon - AmeriFirst Financial - NMLS 259027

The following chart shows market activity over the past 1 month:

San Diego Mortgage - Jason Gordon - AmeriFirst Financial - NMLS 259027

Daily Interest Rate Snapshot (sample of rates from one of the country's largest Lenders...individual pricing will vary based on specific Borrower qualifications).

NOTE: This Lender has quoted a scenario involving a 740+ credit score, 25% down payment, owner occupied, single family residence, with impound account, with a loan amount up to $417,000 to accompany this pricing.

It bears noting that this chart does not necessarily represent today's best mortgage rates.


Beware of relying on Interest Rate Quotes like the one above!  



Market Commentary (Neil Trennery)

Market Update

FNMA in 32s
Cpn 2.5 Chg -0.046 Bid 99.123
Cpn 3.0 Chg 0.000 Bid 102.12
Cpn 3.5 Chg 0.101 Bid 104.20

Treasury in 32s
UST 5 YR Chg 0.060 Bid 100.002 Yield 1.3717
UST 10 YR Chg 0.034 Bid 98.060 Yield 1.8242
UST 30 YR Chg 0.102 Bid 97.286 Yield 2.6007

Bank Rates
Discount 1.00%
Fed Funds 0.50%
Prime 3.50%

Euro Bid 1.11827
Pound Bid 1.44384
Yen Bid 108.795


ADP Employment Change for May: Actual 173k, Consensus 175k, Last 156k.

Unemployment Initial Jobless Claims for Jun: Actual 267k, Consensus 265k, Last 268k.


Even as the yield difference, or spread, between Treasury two- and 30-year securities fell to the lowest since 2008, there may be space for further so-called curve flattening as the market underestimates the chances of two interest-rate increases this year, according to BlackRock Inc. The yield gap has narrowed as traders boosted bets that the Federal Reserve will raise rates this year. A flattening of the curve may suggest investors see rates going up. Yields on two-year notes, the coupon securities most sensitive to Fed policy expectations, climbed this week to the highest in more than two months. The chances of the Fed raising rates by July have climbed to 53 percent from about 26 percent at the start of May, according to data based on fed fund futures compiled by Bloomberg. The calculation assumes the effective fed funds rate will average 0.625 percent after the central banks next increase. The probability of a move by December is 76 percent. We still like the flattener in nominal Treasuries, Marilyn Watson, BlackRocks global bond strategist said in a Bloomberg TV interview with Anna Edwards in London and Manus Cranny in Dubai. The bond market is not fully priced in for a June or July move, and certainly isnt pricing in two hikes this year, she said.

My position on MBS:

Short term Changes to Neutral.
Long term Stays Neutral.

Long = I anticipate pricing to improve which leads to lower Rates.
Neutral = Market should stay close to open plus or minimums 25bps.
Short = I anticipate pricing to weaken which leads to higher Rates.

Short term = 1 - 2 days out
Long term = 30+ days out

Market Commentary (Dan Rawitch)


Bonds are showing signs of strength again this morning! We now have a slightly upward trend and the ten year yield had fought its way back down to 1.82%. Today ADP, Challenger and the weekly jobs numbers all came in fairly tame. Tomorrow is the big Non-farm payroll number that we always anticipate getting and it should be a market mover! If we see a continued rally this morning, you may want to lock, because its often followed by seasoned sellers not wanting to hold positions ahead of a release as big as tomorrows.


2016 Economic Forecast (Barry Habib)


Trusted Industry Advisor

Jason Gordon Mortgage - www.GordonMortgage.com

The above information was compiled and distributed by San Diego Residential Mortgage Specialist, Jason Gordon in an effort to provide transparency regarding true mortgage rate activity and market guidance to consumers and professionals interested in this activity. All Market Commentary is provided via The Mortgage Coach and/or their RateWatch technology software and/or The TBWS Group.

As a Certified Mortgage Planning Specialist (CMPS) Certified Distressed Property Expert (CDPE) Certified Mortgage Coach (CMC), and Certified Military Housing Specialist (CMHS), Jason E Gordon utilizes his advanced training to examine a prospective Client's complete financial picture, while carefully listening to their overall goals. If it is mutually agreed that a new loan makes sense to pursue, Jason strives to make the entire loan process as seamless as possible. He truly believes that providing open communication and patient educational guidance to his Clients and Business Alliances has been a pivotal component to building his business, while enhancing his reputation in the Mortgage Industry as a Trusted Advisor. Visit www.GordonMortgage.com or www.CrossApproval.com or more information.

Click here for daily mortgage interest rate updates and projections for San Diego's best mortgage interest rates

For more information on topics like this, please feel free to visit www.GordonMortgage.com (an educational resource for Borrowers, Real Estate Agents, and Financial Professionals). Educational content provided by:


Jason E. Gordon

Branch Manager | Sr. Mortgage Loan Officer



Gordon Mortgage Group - Jason Gordon Mortgage - AmeriFirst Financial - NMLS 259027


Office: 619-200-8031

Email: jgordon@amerifirst.us



11440 W. Bernardo Court, Ste. 300, San Diego, CA 92127


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Comment balloon 0 commentsJason E. Gordon • June 02 2016 01:23PM